In today's edition, Ben Kamisar previews tonight's mayoral election in Miami. Plus, Steve Kornacki breaks down a new poll that has some warning signs for Republicans about their standing with young voters.

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By Ben Kamisar

Voters in Miami are choosing their next mayor today as Democrats make their latest push to flip a Republican-held office.

The city hasn’t had a Democratic mayor since the late 1990s, and dramatic shifts among Hispanic voters, particularly in South Florida, have melted away Democrats’ edge in recent elections.

But Kamala Harris narrowly carried the city of Miami in the 2024 presidential race while losing Miami-Dade County. That means a Democratic flip is well within reach for former County Commissioner Eileen Higgins, who is running against Republican Emilio T. González, a businessman and former city manager endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Both candidates have pitched themselves as clean breaks from past city politics and promise to address affordability issues, which looms especially large in South Florida, as it has done across the country.

While the candidates’ solutions to those problems may be local, the race has been swept up into a national fight, as both parties jockey for political momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections. In Miami, that means a technically nonpartisan election with clear partisan trappings.

Higgins and González advanced to a runoff after a blanket primary in November after no candidate won at least 50% of the vote. Higgins finished atop the 13-candidate field with 36% of the vote to González’s 19%, and the top two Democratic candidates combined for a majority of the vote.

Democrats come into today’s election energized by their relative overperformance in high-profile elections this year. That’s why the national party is jumping in to lend a hand, alongside a parade of Democratic politicians from across the country, including Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

But Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the mayorship, which they’ve held since 2009 (an independent was mayor from 2001 to 2009). In addition to Trump, prominent Florida Republicans like Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rick Scott and Rep. María Elvira Salazar have sought to boost González. 

Read more from Ben before polls close at 7 p.m. ET →

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President Donald Trump’s standing has ebbed over the course of 2025 with all voters — including a group that he made significant strides with last year. 

The new Yale Youth Poll finds that about two-thirds of voters under 35 years old now disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 

Young voters have long been a Democratic-friendly group, but in the 2024 election they shifted to the right, with 42% of those under 30 backing Trump, according to an average of the exit polls and several major post-election studies. Kamala Harris won 56% of these voters. That 14-point gap was down from the 26-point advantage that Joe Biden enjoyed over Trump in 2020 among those under 30. The new Yale data suggests that those gains have been largely wiped out this year.

The poll also measured the generic congressional ballot for 2026.

The deficits that Republicans face with these under-35 subgroups — between 15 and 20 points — are not massive. But the problem for the GOP is that its generic ballot support is running almost perfectly parallel to Trump’s approval rating. That could present a ceiling for Republicans as the voters who are currently undecided make up their minds.

While these new numbers represent a clear drop for Trump and his party, the silver lining for the GOP is that its standing with young voters is still better than it was during Trump’s first term. In the 2018 midterms, Republicans were crushed among voters under 30 by 49 points, 72% to 23%. That election produced a blue wave, with Democrats flipping 40 House seats and winning back the chamber.

At least for now, Trump and the GOP aren’t in that territory with young voters.

⚖️ SCOTUS watch: Supreme Court justices probed the legality of long-standing campaign finance restrictions challenged by Vice President JD Vance that limit how much national party committees can spend in coordination with individual candidates. Read more →

🇻🇪 Trump interview: Trump said in an interview with Politico that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's "days are numbered" and declined to comment on whether the U.S. could send troops to the country. Read more →

💲ACA fight: Senate Republicans say they’ll offer a bill as an alternative to billions of dollars in Affordable Care Act funds that are slated to expire this month, sending premiums skyrocketing for millions of Americans. Read more →

🛬 Grounded: A new version of the annual defense policy bill could limit Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's travel plans next year if he doesn't release video of recent military strikes. Read more →

📝 Epstein saga: A federal judge in New York granted a Justice Department request to release grand jury material related to Ghislaine Maxwell's case. Read more →

🗺️ Redistricting roundup: The group behind an effort to repeal Missouri’s new GOP-drawn congressional map submitted nearly three times the signatures necessary to force a ballot referendum on it. Read more →

🗳️ Midterm corner: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said in an interview with a conservative podcast that Trump will "campaign like it's 2024 again" for Republicans during next year's elections. In New York,  Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman jumped into the GOP gubernatorial primary against Rep. Elise Stefanik. And in Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello launched a bid for the district held by GOP Rep. John McGuire.

✉️ Return to sender: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's Illinois Democratic Senate campaign sent emails purporting to be from Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif. — but Lieu didn't know and hasn't endorsed in the race. Read more →

🎙️ Tonight: Trump is delivering a speech on the economy in Pennsylvania. Follow along with live updates →

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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